October 25-31, 2014 - Meteor Activity Outlook
During this period the moon reaches its first quarter phase on Thursday October 30th. At this time the moon is located 90 degrees east of the sun and sets near 2300 local daylight time as seen from mid-northern latitudes. The estimated total hourly meteor rates for evening observers this week is near 3 as seen from the northern hemisphere and 2 as seen from southern tropical latitudes. For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near 22 for observers located in mid-northern latitudes and 17 for south tropical observers. Rates are reduced for the evening hours during this period due to moonlight. The actual rates will also depend on factors such as personal light and motion perception, local weather conditions, alertness and experience in watching meteor activity. Note that the hourly rates listed below are estimates as viewed from dark sky sites away from urban light sources. Observers viewing from urban areas will see less activity as only the brightest meteors will be visible from such locations.
The radiant (the area of the sky where meteors appear to shoot from) positions and rates listed below are exact for Saturday night/Sunday morning October 25/26. These positions do not change greatly day to day so the listed coordinates may be used during this entire period. Most star atlases (available at science stores and planetariums) will provide maps with grid lines of the celestial coordinates so that you may find out exactly where these positions are located in the sky. A planisphere or computer planetarium program is also useful in showing the sky at any time of night on any date of the year. Activity from each radiant is best seen when it is positioned highest in the sky, either due north or south along the meridian, depending on your latitude. It must be remembered that meteor activity is rarely seen at the radiant position. Rather they shoot outwards from the radiant so it is best to center your field of view so that the radiant lies at the edge and not the center. Viewing there will allow you to easily trace the path of each meteor back to the radiant (if it is a shower member) or in another direction if it is a sporadic. Meteor activity is not seen from radiants that are located below the horizon. The positions below are listed in a west to east manner in order of right ascension (celestial longitude). The positions listed first are located further west therefore are accessible earlier in the night while those listed further down the list rise later in the night.
These sources of meteoric activity are expected to be active this week:
The first activity from the Andromedids (AND) will be seen this week. This is a famous shower that produced some brilliant displays during the 19th century. Since then the main orbit of the particles from comet 3D/Biela have moved away from the Earth. Still, remnants may be seen from October 26 through November 20 with maximum activity occurring on November 8. The radiant is currently located at 01:20 (020) +22, which lies in eastern Pisces, 10 degrees west of the 2nd magnitude star Hamal (Alpha Arietis). Rates would most likely be less than 1 per hour no matter your location. With an entry velocity of 19 km/sec., the average Andromedid meteor would be of slow velocity.
The Southern Taurids (STA) are currently active from a radiant located at 03:04 (046) +12. This position lies in southeastern Aries, 8 degrees north of the 3rd magnitude star known Menkar (Alpha Ceti). These meteors may be seen all night long but the radiant is best placed near 0100 LDT when it lies on the meridian and is located highest in the sky. Rates at this time should be near 3 per hour regardless of your location. With an entry velocity of 29 km/sec., the average Southern Taurid meteor would be of slow velocity.
The Northern Taurids (NTA) are now active from a large radiant centered at 03:08 (047) +20, which lies in eastern Aries, close to the position occupied by the fourth magnitude star known as Delta Arietis. The radiant is best placed near 0200 LDT, when it lies highest above the horizon. Meteors from the Northern Taurids strike the atmosphere at 29km/sec., which would produce meteors of slow velocity. Expected rates would be near two per hour, no matter your location.
The Orionids (ORI) are active from a radiant at 06:36 (099) +16, which places it in southwestern Gemini, close to the spot occupied by the 2nd magnitude star known as Alhena (Gamma Geminorum). This area of the sky is best placed in the sky near 0500 LDT, when it lies highest above the horizon. The maximum for the Orionids was weak so rates this week should only be near 3 per hour no matter your location. With an entry velocity of 67 km/sec., most activity from this radiant would be of swift speed.
The Epsilon Geminids (EGE) are still active from a radiant is located at 07:08 (107) +27. This area of the sky lies in central Gemini, directly between the 1st magnitude star Pollux (Beta Geminorum) and 3rd magnitude Mebsuta (Epsilon Geminorum). The radiant is best placed in the sky during the last hour before dawn, when it lies highest above the horizon in a dark sky. Current rates should be near 2 per hour as seen from the northern hemisphere and near 1 when view south of the equator. With an entry velocity of 70 km/sec., most activity from this radiant would be of swift speed.
The last of the Leonis Minorids (LMI) will be seen this week. The radiant is currently located at 10:56 (164) +36. This position lies in northeastern Leo Minor near the faint star known as 46 Leonis Minoris. This position is also close to the mid-way point between the brighter stars Nu and Upsilon Ursae Majoris. This area of the sky is best placed in the sky during the last hour before dawn, when it lies highest above the horizon in a dark sky. Current rates should be near 1 per hour as seen from the northern hemisphere and less than 1 as seen from south of the equator. With an entry velocity of 68 km/sec., most activity from this radiant would be of swift speed.
The Lambda Ursae Majorids (LUM) are a recent discovery by Zeljko Andreic. This weak shower is active from October 24 through November 1st with maximum activity occurring on the 27th. The radiant currently located at 10:20 (155) +50. This position lies in a sparse area of central Ursa Major, between the 2nd magnitude star Merak (Beta Ursae Majoris) and 3rd magnitude Tania Borealis (Lambda Ursa Majoris). This area of the sky is best placed in the sky during the last hour before dawn, when it lies highest above the horizon in a dark sky. Current rates should be near 1 per hour as seen from the northern hemisphere and less than 1 as seen from south of the equator. With an entry velocity of 62 km/sec., most activity from this radiant would be of swift speed.
As seen from the mid-northern hemisphere (45N) one would expect to see approximately 10 sporadic meteors per hour during the last hour before dawn as seen from rural observing sites. Evening rates would be near 2 per hour. As seen from the tropical southern latitudes (25S), morning rates would be near 7 per hour as seen from rural observing sites and 1 per hour during the evening hours. Locations between these two extremes would see activity between the listed figures. Moonlight reduces the number of meteors seen during the evening hours during this period.
Shower ........... Date of Max. activity Celestial position - Culmination - hr rate Class
Andromedids (AND) Nov 08 01:20 (020) +22 19 ................ 23:00 ..........<1 – <1 III
Southern Taurids (STA) Oct 10 03:04 (046) +12 29 ............01:00 ...........3 – 3 ..II
Northern Taurids (NTA) Oct 22 03:08 (047) +20 29 ............01:00 ...........2 – 2 ..II
Orionids (ORI) Oct 22 06:36 (099) +16 67 ....................05:00 ...........3 – 3 ...I
Epsilon Geminids (EGE) Oct 22 07:08 (107) +27 70 ............06:00 ...........2 – 1 ..II
Lambda Ursa Majorids (LUM) Oct 27 10:20 (155) +50 62 ........09:00 ...........1 – <1 .IV
Leonis Minorids (LMI) Oct 22 10:56 (164) +36 60 .............10:00 ...........1 – <1 .II
Orionids Active from October 4th to November 14th 2014 - Peak night Oct 21-22
The Orionids are a medium strength shower that sometimes reaches high strength activity. In a normal year the Orionids produce 20-25 shower members at maximum. In exceptional years, such as 2006-2009, the peak rates were on par with the Perseids (50-75 per hour). At this time we are unable to predict exactly when the Orionids will be exception
Radiant: 06:20 +15.5° - ZHR: 25 - Velocity: 41 miles/sec (swift - 67km/sec) - Parent Object: 1P/Halley
Southern Taurids Active from September 7th to November 19th 2014 - Peak night Oct 8-9
The Southern Taurids are a long-lasting shower that reaches a barely noticeable maximum on October 9 or 10. The shower is active for more than two months but rarely produces more than five shower members per hour, even at maximum activity. The Taurids (both branches) are rich in fireballs and are often responsible for increased number of fireball reports from September through November.
Radiant: 02:08 +8.7° - ZHR: 5 - Velocity: 17 miles/sec (slow - 28km/sec) - Parent Object: 2P/Encke
Quadrantids Active from January 1st to 10th 2014 - Peak night Jan 2-3
Lyrids Active from April 16th to 25th 2014 Peak night - Apr 21-22
Eta Aquariids Active from April 19th to May 26th 2014 - Peak night May 5-6
Delta Aquariids Active from July 21st to August 23rd 2014 - Peak night Jul 27-28
Alpha Capricornids Active from July 11th to August 10th 2014 - Peak night Jul 28-29
Perseids Active from July 13th to August 26th 2014 - Peak night Aug 11-12
Northern Taurids Active from October 19th to December 10th 2014 - Peak night Nov 12-13
Leonids Active from November 5th to 30th 2014 - Peak night Nov 17-18
Geminids Active from December 4th to 16th 2014 - Peak night Dec 13-14
Ursids Active from December 17th to 23rd 2014 - Peak night Dec 21-22
Monday, October 27, 2014
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Major wild FIRES worldwide in October
2017 (as of October 16, these numbers will change as news reports surface) In California State wide At least 42 dead, 5,700 structures lost in Northern California firestorm, among worst in state's history and at the time of this post, the fire is still raging out of control. These California fires have been identified as unprecedented. By far, the worst of these fires has been called the Santa Rosa Fires or the Napa Valley Fires as the fires have spread from the Hills of Napa Valley to the neighborhoods of Santa Rosa. Notice from the pictures below that entire neighborhoods have gone up in smoke! Nothing in its path has been spared. Pictures by LA Times credited to: reporter(s) listed: Laura J Nelson, Sonali Kohli, Paige St.John, Dakota Smith, Nina Agrawal & Marcus Yam. This fire is reported to require the assistance of some 11,000 fire-workers and as of today is still raging with more updates to come.
California Fires location by map as of Friday October 13, 2017
Lobo Nevada 880 October 9, 2017 20% contained At least 30 structures destroyed
McCourtney Nevada 72 October 9, 2017 60% contained
La Porte Butte 3,500 October 9, 2017 10% contained
Cascade Yuba 11,500 October 9, 2017 15% contained 1 fatality
Sulphur Lake 2,500 October 9, 2017 10% contained
Point Calaveras 130 October 9, 2017 50% contained 4 structures destroyed
Canyon 2 Orange 7,500 October 9, 2017 25% contained 24 structures destroyed
37 Sonoma 2,000 October 9, 2017 40% contained
Cherokee Butte 7,500 October 8, 2017 40% contained
Atlas Napa 25,000 October 8, 2017 0% contained 2 fatalities, 125 structures destroyed
Tubbs Napa 27,000 October 8, 2017 0% contained 571 structures destroyed
Nuns Sonoma 5,000 October 8, 2017 0% contained
Partrick Napa 1,000 October 8, 2017 0% contained
Redwood Complex Mendocino 21,000 October 8, 2017 0% contained 1 fatality
Here is a link to the LA Times story: http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-fires-20171013-story.html
Sonoma County California - Update at least 15 dead, 183 people are still listed as missing. In Northern California wine country, officials say at least 2,000 homes and commercial buildings have been destroyed, and 20,000 people have been evacuated. This has been called a raging inferno.
Anaheim, Santa Rosa & Napa Valley California. There are a reported 9 major fires raging in California today. One fire's name is the Atlas Fire. The 2017 California wildfires are a series of wildfires that are burning across the state of California during October 2017. During 2017, a total of 7,484 fires have burned 771,765 acres (3,123.22 km2), according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. In the extreme conditions, shortly after the fires ignited, they rapidly grew to become massive conflagrations spanning from 1,000 to well over 20,000 acres apart within a single day.
For a complete list of fires, I found this in Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wildfires
2017 Montana List of fires - Major fires of 2017 that consumed over 1,000 acres (400 ha) include the following (as of September 13 thru October 2017):
Over 100,000 acres (40,000 ha)
Lodgepole Complex Fire, public and private land 52 miles WNW of Jordan, 270,723 acres (109,558 ha)
Rice Ridge Fire, Lolo National Forest, near Seeley Lake, Montana, 160,183 acres (64,824 ha)
Over 50,000 acres (20,000 ha)
Meyers Fire, Beaverhead National Forest/Deerlodge National Forest, 62,034 acres (25,104 ha)
Lolo Peak Fire, Lolo National Forest, 53,902 acres (21,813 ha)
At an interagency and departmental briefing on Montana fires: (from left) U.S. Congressman Greg Gianforte, U.S. Senator Steve Daines, Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue and Secretary of Interior Ryan Zinke.
Over 20,000 acres (8,100 ha)
Sapphire Complex Fire, Lolo National Forest, 43,733 acres (17,698 ha)
Little Hogback Fire, Lolo National Forest, 29,654 acres (12,001 ha)
Alice Creek Fire, Helena National Forest – Lewis and Clark National Forest, 29,252 acres (11,838 ha)
Tongue River Complex Fire, Custer National Forest/Gallatin National Forest, 28,957 acres (11,718 ha)
Liberty Fire, Flathead Indian Reservation, 28,689 acres (11,610 ha)
Sunrise Fire, Lolo National Forest, 26,310 acres (10,650 ha)
Highway 200 Complex Fire, Lolo National Forest/Kootenai National Forest, near Plains and Thompson Falls, Montana 48,417 acres (19,594 ha)
Caribou Fire, near Eureka, Montana, Kootenai National Forest, 24,753 acres (10,017 ha)
East Fork Fire, state land in Bears Paw Mountains, south of Havre, Montana, 21,896 acres (8,861 ha)
Strawberry Fire, near Dupuyer, Montana, Flathead National Forest, 20,894 acres (8,456 ha)
Scalp Fire, Flathead National Forest, 20,810 acres (8,420 ha)
West Fork Fire, Kootenai National Forest, 20,072 acres (8,123 ha)
Over 10,000 acres (4,000 ha)
The historic Sperry Chalet was nearly destroyed by the Sprague FirePark Creek Fire, Helena National Forest/Lewis and Clark National Forest, 18,000 acres (7,300 ha)
Sprague Fire, Glacier National Park, 16,790 acres (6,790 ha)
Moose Peak Fire, Kootenai National Forest, 13,903 acres (5,626 ha)
Gibralter Ridge Fire, Kootenai National Forest, 12,938 acres (5,236 ha)
July Fire, public and private land near Zortman, 11,699 acres (4,734 ha)
Whetstone Ridge Fire, Beaverhead National Forest/Deerlodge National Forest, 11,593 acres (4,692 ha)
Reef Fire, Bob Marshall Wilderness, Flathead National Forest, 10,658 acres (4,313 ha)
Crucifixion Creek Fire, near Heart Butte, Montana, in the Badger-Two Medicine area, Helena National Forest/Lewis and Clark National Forest, 11,008 acres (4,455 ha)
Over 1,000 acres (400 ha)
Goat Creek Fire, Lolo National Forest, 8,323 acres (3,368 ha)
Crying Fire, public and private land 50 miles north of Winnett, 7,295 acres (2,952 ha)
Blacktail Fire, Lewis and Clark National Forest, 5,351 acres (2,165 ha)
Green Ridge Complex Fire, Bitterroot National Forest, 4,769 acres (1,930 ha)
Weasel Fire, Kootenai National Forest, 3,925 acres (1,588 ha)
Monahan Fire, Lolo National Forest, 3,613 acres (1,462 ha)
Blue Ridge Complex Fire, public and private land 39 miles NW of Jordan, 3,034 acres (1,228 ha)
Buffalo Fire, public and private land 31 miles SW of Broadus, 3,020 acres (1,220 ha)
Adair Peak Fire, Glacier National Park, 4,034 acres (1,633 ha)
Conrow Fire, Beaverhead National Forest/Deerlodge National Forest, 2,741 acres (1,109 ha)
Yooper Fire, SW Rural Culbertson/Richland County area, private and public land, 7,816 acres (3,163 ha)
Smoke from some of these fires in Montana could be seen from space:
1918 Cloquet Fire, Minnesota United States October 12, 1918 death toll 453
1871 Peshtigo Fire, Wisconsin United States October 8, 1871 death toll est. 2,000
1825 Miramichi Fire Canada death toll 160
Earthquakes Worldwide in October
1138 Aleppo earthquake Zengid dynasty (now Syria) October 11, 1138 death toll 230,000
1707 Hōei earthquake Japan October 28, 1707 death toll 30,000
1948 Ashgabat earthquake Turkmen SSR, Soviet Union (now Turkmenistan) October 5, 1948 death toll 110,000
1989 - Earthquake rocks San Francisco - The deadliest earthquake to hit the San Francisco area since 1906 strikes at 5:04 p.m. and lasts for 15 seconds. The quake measured 7.1 on the Richter scale, and its aftermath was witnessed on live television by millions of people watching the third game of the World Series of baseball between the San Francisco Giants and the Oakland Athletics, held at Candlestick Park in San Francisco. The tremor hit moments before the start of the game, and sportscasters were soon performing the duties of news anchors as they reported on the resulting pandemonium in the stadium. The earthquake killed a total of 63 people, while more than 3,000 others were injured and more than 100,000 buildings were damaged.
2005 Kashmir earthquake Pakistan (Azad Kashmir) October 8, 2005 death toll 100,000
2017 - October -
Date Country and location Mw Depth (km) MMI Notes Casualties Dead Injured
6[277] Japan offshore, 255 km east southeast of Ishinomaki 6.0 10.0 III
8[278] Tonga, 153 km northwest of Pangai 6.1 10.0 IV
8[279] Antarctica, Balleny Islands region 6.3 10.0 I
8[280] United States, Alaska, 60 km east of Buldir Island 6.6 111.8 V
10[281] Chile, 36 km south southwest of Putre 6.3 82.4 V Some landslides blocked roads in Arica region.[282]
10[283] Norway offshore, Bouvet Island region 6.7 10 I
1707 Hōei earthquake Japan October 28, 1707 death toll 30,000
1948 Ashgabat earthquake Turkmen SSR, Soviet Union (now Turkmenistan) October 5, 1948 death toll 110,000
1989 - Earthquake rocks San Francisco - The deadliest earthquake to hit the San Francisco area since 1906 strikes at 5:04 p.m. and lasts for 15 seconds. The quake measured 7.1 on the Richter scale, and its aftermath was witnessed on live television by millions of people watching the third game of the World Series of baseball between the San Francisco Giants and the Oakland Athletics, held at Candlestick Park in San Francisco. The tremor hit moments before the start of the game, and sportscasters were soon performing the duties of news anchors as they reported on the resulting pandemonium in the stadium. The earthquake killed a total of 63 people, while more than 3,000 others were injured and more than 100,000 buildings were damaged.
2005 Kashmir earthquake Pakistan (Azad Kashmir) October 8, 2005 death toll 100,000
2017 - October -
Date Country and location Mw Depth (km) MMI Notes Casualties Dead Injured
6[277] Japan offshore, 255 km east southeast of Ishinomaki 6.0 10.0 III
8[278] Tonga, 153 km northwest of Pangai 6.1 10.0 IV
8[279] Antarctica, Balleny Islands region 6.3 10.0 I
8[280] United States, Alaska, 60 km east of Buldir Island 6.6 111.8 V
10[281] Chile, 36 km south southwest of Putre 6.3 82.4 V Some landslides blocked roads in Arica region.[282]
10[283] Norway offshore, Bouvet Island region 6.7 10 I
Cyclones, Typhoons & Hurricanes Worldwide in October
Where do Hurricanes form in October - https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/where-hurricanes-form-in-october
There have been 17 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) that have made direct hits on the U.S. mainland in the month of October since 1851.
Florida is the state most likely to see a landfalling hurricane in October.
Since 1950, 15 hurricanes have made a U.S. landfall in October, 8 of which occurred in Florida.
In South Florida, October is the month with the most hurricane direct hits (some of which are listed below)
1737 Calcutta cyclone - October 7, Other reports from merchant ships indicated an earthquake and tidal surge were to blame, destroying 20,000 ships in the harbor and killing 300,000 people. It should be noted that the population of Calcutta at the time was around 3,000-20,000. This apparent incongruity in the data suggests a possible mix-up with the numbers for the 1839 Coringa cyclone mentioned in this article, which also suggest 20,000 sunk ships and 300,000 fatalities. Both of these figures may stem from the 300,000 figure in the 1737 super cyclone in the West Bengal region as neither one has similar numbers according to the National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project's site
1847 - Bengal India cyclone of October -
1874 Bengal India cyclone - This severe cyclone killed 80,000 people and caused significant damage
1876 Backergunge or perhaps Backeranj India cyclone - On October 31, the cyclone made landfall on Backerganj now Bangladesh. Similarities, may suggest to be the same cyclone as next listed.
1876 Bangladesh cyclone - killing about 200,000 people, half of whom were drowned by the storm surge, and the remainder died in the resultant famine. The maximum wind was estimated at 220 km/h (119 knots) and the surge height was 3–13.6 m (10–45 ft).
1881 Haiphong Typhoon - Vietnam The 1881 Haiphong Typhoon was a typhoon that struck Haiphong, in what is now Vietnam, on 8 October 1881 and the northern part of the Philippines. Up to 300,000 people were killed by the typhoon, which was one of the deadliest cyclonic storms in history.
1887 Yellow River China flood - Death toll est. 900,000–2,000,000
1942 Bengal India cyclone - On October 16, a cyclone hit near the India/Bangladesh border, resulting in around 40,000 fatalities. A wind gust of 225 km/h (140 mph) was recorded.
1949 - A Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (September-October) became an Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #10) and made landfall in TX.
1954 - Hurricane Hazel, the fourth major hurricane of 1954, hammers southern Ontario, Canada, on this day in 1954. Hazel hit hard from Jamaica to Canada, killing more than 400 people and causing over $1 billion in damages.
1961 - Atlantic Hurricane Hattie (October-November) became Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm Simone. Hurricane Hattie strikes Belize on this day, killing more than 400 people and leaving thousands homeless. Almost half of Belize City was demolished by the storm. It was a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 140 miles per hour and gusts reaching 180 mph.
1967 Odisha cyclone - On October 12, an intense cyclone struck the state of Odisha and left complete devastation along its path
1971 Arabian ocean cyclone - A tropical cyclone Category 1 moved through the Arabian Sea near the end of October 27-31. Peak intensity 120 km/h (75 mph)
1971 Odisha cyclone - On October 27 a tropical depression formed in the Bay of Bengal. It tracked northward, steadily strengthening until reaching a peak of 115 mph winds. The cyclone struck Cuttack, a city in Odisha, India, on October 29, and dissipated 2 days later. The storm surge and flooding from the system caused 10,800 fatalities packing winds 185 km/h (115 mph)
1973 Bay of Bengal India cyclone - Duration October 6-12, Peak intensity 85 km/h (50 mph)
1976 Mid-October Arabian sea cyclone - Duration October 12-19, Peak intensity 95 km/h (60 mph)
1976 Mid-October Bay of Bengal cyclone - Duration October 14-19 Peak intensity 85 km/h (50 mph)
It is said that 2017 hurricane season is about to break 124-year-old record. Last year, Hurricane Nate made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in the northern Gulf Coast, first in southeastern Louisiana on Oct. 7 and then near Biloxi, Mississippi, on Oct. 8. Nate produced a storm surge of 6.3 feet at Pascagoula, Mississippi, and a wind gust of 75 mph was recorded at Calvert, Alabama. Nate also produced tornadoes from Alabama to North Carolina. Before the South Carolina landfall, Matthew paralleled the coasts of Florida and Georgia, bringing wind gusts as high as 107 mph to Cape Canaveral, Florida, and a peak storm surge of 9.88 feet above normal at a National Ocean Service tide gauge at Fernandina Beach, Florida.
Although it has been a while since the last October hurricane landfall in Florida, it's the state most likely to see a landfalling hurricane in October, with the southern part of the state at the highest risk. Before last year's pummeling by Category 4 Hurricane Irma, the last hurricane to make landfall in Florida was Hurricane Wilma on Oct. 24, 2005. Many Floridians consider October to be the peak of the hurricane season due to the increased number of hurricane strikes then, even though the peak of the hurricane season for the entire basin occurs in September. From 1851 to 2017, 32 hurricanes made a Florida landfall in October, dwarfing the state with the second-highest number of October landfalls: Louisiana, with 10. There have been 17 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) that have made direct hits on the U.S. mainland in the month of October since 1851. Ten of those occurred in Florida. It becomes more difficult for hurricanes to make landfall farther north in October as the upper-level wind pattern changes and the jet stream slides farther south, but Superstorm Sandy in 2012 broke many meteorological rules of thumb.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-09-27-october-hurricane-tracks-united-states-florida-threat
The map above shows the 15 hurricanes that have made landfall in October since 1950, not including Sandy since it did not make landfall as a hurricane. Eight of those occurred in Florida, and you can see the cluster of lines in South Florida.
2005 - Strongest October hurricane: Wilma, 175 mph, 882 mbar. Wilma became the most intense hurricane in the Atlantic Basin ever recorded.
Why Florida?
Even though the climatological peak of the hurricane season – Sept. 10 – has passed, residents along the Gulf and East coasts need to remain prepared for a hurricane. Roughly one-fifth of all U.S. hurricane landfalls have occurred in October and November. On average, one hurricane forms every year in October, according to the National Hurricane Center. The most hurricanes to form in October was five in 2010.
Why October?
By October, we typically see the formation zones of tropical storms and hurricanes shift westward toward the western Caribbean Sea, eastern Gulf of Mexico and far western Atlantic Ocean as the "Cabo Verde" portion of the hurricane season, featuring development of African easterly waves in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, fades. In South Florida, October is the month with the most hurricane direct hits. According to NOAA's Best Track Database, 23 October hurricanes have passed within 100 nautical miles of downtown Miami since 1851. With roughly one-third of an average Atlantic hurricane season left, a number of tropical storms or hurricanes may still form before season's end. Stay aware of what's brewing in the tropics on weather.com, and make sure your hurricane plan is ready in case a fall hurricane threatens.
2012 October 28, - Super typhoon "Frankenstorm" Sandy, biggest storm in history hits New York. It is called by some to be a once in a life time storm. Deemed to be the worst storm in decades to strike the densely populated US East Coast, floods New York's subway, leaves millions without power, kills at least 182 people and causes US$65 billion in damages.
2016 - Hurricane Matthew made one official U.S. landfall Oct. 8 southeast of McClellanville, South Carolina, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75-mph winds.
2017 October - so far in the first 8 days of October -
October 3-5 - TS Ramone - Southern Mexico
Hurricane Harvey Category 5
Hurricane Irma category 5
Hurricane Jose category 1
Hurricane Lee category 3
Hurricane Maria category 5
Hurricane Nate category 1
Hurricane Ophelia category TS
2018 - On October 10, Hurricane Michael was the third-most intense Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in the United States in terms of pressure, behind the 1935 Labor Day hurricane and Hurricane Camille of 1969. It was also the strongest in terms of maximum sustained wind speed to strike the contiguous United States since Andrew in 1992. In addition, it was the strongest on record in the Florida Panhandle, and was the fourth-strongest landfalling hurricane in the contiguous United States, in terms of wind speed. The thirteenth named storm, seventh hurricane, and second major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Michael originated from a broad low-pressure area that formed in the southwestern Caribbean Sea on October 2. The disturbance became a tropical depression on October 7, after nearly a week of slow development. By the next day, Michael had intensified into a hurricane near the western tip of Cuba as it moved northward. The hurricane strengthened rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico, reaching major hurricane status on October 9, peaking at a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale. Approaching the Florida Panhandle, Michael attained peak winds of 155 mph (250 km/h) as it made landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida, on October 10, becoming the first to do so in the region as a Category 4 hurricane, and making landfall as the strongest storm of the season. As it moved inland, the storm weakened and began to take a northeastward trajectory toward Chesapeake Bay, weakening to a tropical storm over Georgia, and transitioning into an extratropical cyclone off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states on October 12. Michael subsequently strengthened into a powerful extratropical cyclone and eventually impacted the Iberian Peninsula, before dissipating on October 16.
By October 18, at least 48 deaths had been attributed to the storm, including 33 in the United States and 15 in Central America. Insurance losses due to Michael in the United States were ranged from $8–11 billion (2018 USD).[1] As a tropical depression, the storm caused extensive flooding in Central America in concert with a second disturbance over the eastern Pacific Ocean. In Cuba, the hurricane's winds left over 200,000 people without power as the storm passed to the island's west. Along the Florida panhandle, the cities of Mexico Beach and Panama City suffered the worst of Michael, with catastrophic damage reported due to the extreme winds and storm surge. Numerous homes were flattened and trees felled over a wide swath of the panhandle. A maximum wind gust of 129 mph (208 km/h) was measured at Tyndall Air Force Base near the point of landfall. As Michael tracked across the Southeastern United States, strong winds caused extensive power outages across the region.
There have been 17 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) that have made direct hits on the U.S. mainland in the month of October since 1851.
Florida is the state most likely to see a landfalling hurricane in October.
Since 1950, 15 hurricanes have made a U.S. landfall in October, 8 of which occurred in Florida.
In South Florida, October is the month with the most hurricane direct hits (some of which are listed below)
1737 Calcutta cyclone - October 7, Other reports from merchant ships indicated an earthquake and tidal surge were to blame, destroying 20,000 ships in the harbor and killing 300,000 people. It should be noted that the population of Calcutta at the time was around 3,000-20,000. This apparent incongruity in the data suggests a possible mix-up with the numbers for the 1839 Coringa cyclone mentioned in this article, which also suggest 20,000 sunk ships and 300,000 fatalities. Both of these figures may stem from the 300,000 figure in the 1737 super cyclone in the West Bengal region as neither one has similar numbers according to the National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project's site
1847 - Bengal India cyclone of October -
1874 Bengal India cyclone - This severe cyclone killed 80,000 people and caused significant damage
1876 Backergunge or perhaps Backeranj India cyclone - On October 31, the cyclone made landfall on Backerganj now Bangladesh. Similarities, may suggest to be the same cyclone as next listed.
1876 Bangladesh cyclone - killing about 200,000 people, half of whom were drowned by the storm surge, and the remainder died in the resultant famine. The maximum wind was estimated at 220 km/h (119 knots) and the surge height was 3–13.6 m (10–45 ft).
1881 Haiphong Typhoon - Vietnam The 1881 Haiphong Typhoon was a typhoon that struck Haiphong, in what is now Vietnam, on 8 October 1881 and the northern part of the Philippines. Up to 300,000 people were killed by the typhoon, which was one of the deadliest cyclonic storms in history.
1887 Yellow River China flood - Death toll est. 900,000–2,000,000
1942 Bengal India cyclone - On October 16, a cyclone hit near the India/Bangladesh border, resulting in around 40,000 fatalities. A wind gust of 225 km/h (140 mph) was recorded.
1949 - A Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (September-October) became an Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #10) and made landfall in TX.
1954 - Hurricane Hazel, the fourth major hurricane of 1954, hammers southern Ontario, Canada, on this day in 1954. Hazel hit hard from Jamaica to Canada, killing more than 400 people and causing over $1 billion in damages.
1961 - Atlantic Hurricane Hattie (October-November) became Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm Simone. Hurricane Hattie strikes Belize on this day, killing more than 400 people and leaving thousands homeless. Almost half of Belize City was demolished by the storm. It was a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 140 miles per hour and gusts reaching 180 mph.
1967 Odisha cyclone - On October 12, an intense cyclone struck the state of Odisha and left complete devastation along its path
1971 Arabian ocean cyclone - A tropical cyclone Category 1 moved through the Arabian Sea near the end of October 27-31. Peak intensity 120 km/h (75 mph)
1971 Odisha cyclone - On October 27 a tropical depression formed in the Bay of Bengal. It tracked northward, steadily strengthening until reaching a peak of 115 mph winds. The cyclone struck Cuttack, a city in Odisha, India, on October 29, and dissipated 2 days later. The storm surge and flooding from the system caused 10,800 fatalities packing winds 185 km/h (115 mph)
1973 Bay of Bengal India cyclone - Duration October 6-12, Peak intensity 85 km/h (50 mph)
1976 Mid-October Arabian sea cyclone - Duration October 12-19, Peak intensity 95 km/h (60 mph)
1976 Mid-October Bay of Bengal cyclone - Duration October 14-19 Peak intensity 85 km/h (50 mph)
It is said that 2017 hurricane season is about to break 124-year-old record. Last year, Hurricane Nate made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in the northern Gulf Coast, first in southeastern Louisiana on Oct. 7 and then near Biloxi, Mississippi, on Oct. 8. Nate produced a storm surge of 6.3 feet at Pascagoula, Mississippi, and a wind gust of 75 mph was recorded at Calvert, Alabama. Nate also produced tornadoes from Alabama to North Carolina. Before the South Carolina landfall, Matthew paralleled the coasts of Florida and Georgia, bringing wind gusts as high as 107 mph to Cape Canaveral, Florida, and a peak storm surge of 9.88 feet above normal at a National Ocean Service tide gauge at Fernandina Beach, Florida.
Although it has been a while since the last October hurricane landfall in Florida, it's the state most likely to see a landfalling hurricane in October, with the southern part of the state at the highest risk. Before last year's pummeling by Category 4 Hurricane Irma, the last hurricane to make landfall in Florida was Hurricane Wilma on Oct. 24, 2005. Many Floridians consider October to be the peak of the hurricane season due to the increased number of hurricane strikes then, even though the peak of the hurricane season for the entire basin occurs in September. From 1851 to 2017, 32 hurricanes made a Florida landfall in October, dwarfing the state with the second-highest number of October landfalls: Louisiana, with 10. There have been 17 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) that have made direct hits on the U.S. mainland in the month of October since 1851. Ten of those occurred in Florida. It becomes more difficult for hurricanes to make landfall farther north in October as the upper-level wind pattern changes and the jet stream slides farther south, but Superstorm Sandy in 2012 broke many meteorological rules of thumb.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-09-27-october-hurricane-tracks-united-states-florida-threat
The map above shows the 15 hurricanes that have made landfall in October since 1950, not including Sandy since it did not make landfall as a hurricane. Eight of those occurred in Florida, and you can see the cluster of lines in South Florida.
2005 - Strongest October hurricane: Wilma, 175 mph, 882 mbar. Wilma became the most intense hurricane in the Atlantic Basin ever recorded.
Why Florida?
Even though the climatological peak of the hurricane season – Sept. 10 – has passed, residents along the Gulf and East coasts need to remain prepared for a hurricane. Roughly one-fifth of all U.S. hurricane landfalls have occurred in October and November. On average, one hurricane forms every year in October, according to the National Hurricane Center. The most hurricanes to form in October was five in 2010.
Why October?
By October, we typically see the formation zones of tropical storms and hurricanes shift westward toward the western Caribbean Sea, eastern Gulf of Mexico and far western Atlantic Ocean as the "Cabo Verde" portion of the hurricane season, featuring development of African easterly waves in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, fades. In South Florida, October is the month with the most hurricane direct hits. According to NOAA's Best Track Database, 23 October hurricanes have passed within 100 nautical miles of downtown Miami since 1851. With roughly one-third of an average Atlantic hurricane season left, a number of tropical storms or hurricanes may still form before season's end. Stay aware of what's brewing in the tropics on weather.com, and make sure your hurricane plan is ready in case a fall hurricane threatens.
2012 October 28, - Super typhoon "Frankenstorm" Sandy, biggest storm in history hits New York. It is called by some to be a once in a life time storm. Deemed to be the worst storm in decades to strike the densely populated US East Coast, floods New York's subway, leaves millions without power, kills at least 182 people and causes US$65 billion in damages.
2016 - Hurricane Matthew made one official U.S. landfall Oct. 8 southeast of McClellanville, South Carolina, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75-mph winds.
2017 October - so far in the first 8 days of October -
October 3-5 - TS Ramone - Southern Mexico
Hurricane Harvey Category 5
Hurricane Irma category 5
Hurricane Jose category 1
Hurricane Lee category 3
Hurricane Maria category 5
Hurricane Nate category 1
Hurricane Ophelia category TS
2018 - On October 10, Hurricane Michael was the third-most intense Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in the United States in terms of pressure, behind the 1935 Labor Day hurricane and Hurricane Camille of 1969. It was also the strongest in terms of maximum sustained wind speed to strike the contiguous United States since Andrew in 1992. In addition, it was the strongest on record in the Florida Panhandle, and was the fourth-strongest landfalling hurricane in the contiguous United States, in terms of wind speed. The thirteenth named storm, seventh hurricane, and second major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Michael originated from a broad low-pressure area that formed in the southwestern Caribbean Sea on October 2. The disturbance became a tropical depression on October 7, after nearly a week of slow development. By the next day, Michael had intensified into a hurricane near the western tip of Cuba as it moved northward. The hurricane strengthened rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico, reaching major hurricane status on October 9, peaking at a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale. Approaching the Florida Panhandle, Michael attained peak winds of 155 mph (250 km/h) as it made landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida, on October 10, becoming the first to do so in the region as a Category 4 hurricane, and making landfall as the strongest storm of the season. As it moved inland, the storm weakened and began to take a northeastward trajectory toward Chesapeake Bay, weakening to a tropical storm over Georgia, and transitioning into an extratropical cyclone off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states on October 12. Michael subsequently strengthened into a powerful extratropical cyclone and eventually impacted the Iberian Peninsula, before dissipating on October 16.
By October 18, at least 48 deaths had been attributed to the storm, including 33 in the United States and 15 in Central America. Insurance losses due to Michael in the United States were ranged from $8–11 billion (2018 USD).[1] As a tropical depression, the storm caused extensive flooding in Central America in concert with a second disturbance over the eastern Pacific Ocean. In Cuba, the hurricane's winds left over 200,000 people without power as the storm passed to the island's west. Along the Florida panhandle, the cities of Mexico Beach and Panama City suffered the worst of Michael, with catastrophic damage reported due to the extreme winds and storm surge. Numerous homes were flattened and trees felled over a wide swath of the panhandle. A maximum wind gust of 129 mph (208 km/h) was measured at Tyndall Air Force Base near the point of landfall. As Michael tracked across the Southeastern United States, strong winds caused extensive power outages across the region.
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